Friday, October 5, 2012

Iran and the Potential of Sanctions

Right now the world is carrying out a great experiment in international relations, with Iran as the guinea pig. The point of the experiment is to find out if economic sanctions, accompanied by endless diplomatic scolding and a bit of saber-rattling, can induce a powerful nation to give up on a major political and military goal. I don't think there is any doubt that Iran is pursuing an atomic bomb. And who can blame them, given that their enemies in Israel and the US talk constantly about attacking their country?

The economic sanctions have been hurting Iranians for some time, but not so much that their government felt compelled to change their course. Now, though, the Iranian currency is collapsing, and there has been some rioting motivated by economic anxiety. So we get to find out: will the Iranian people force their government to give up their nuclear program (or at least cut it way back, to a scale that can be hidden), so as to get the sanctions lifted, or will the government brazen it out and force us to either go to war or accept them as a nuclear nation?

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